Since October 2021, the global inflationary pressure is intensified, and the energy crisis is expected to heat up, and the fund will take the opportunity to speculate on the commodity. When the Northern Hemiscol is starting to market, the price of cotton has risen against the trend, and the new high after 10 years is turned to the shock. What is the next step?
01. Cotton prices have sharply soaring steering
Since October, the macroeconomic growth has slowed down, the monetary policy is tightened, and the internal and external stock index weaken, the futures market has become the main flow of the capital, the funds have a significant soaring price, ICE cotton main contracts rise to 116.48 cents / Pounds, set the new high after 10 years and shock. As of June 29, 202, ICE cotton futures main contract settlement price 114.85 cents / lbs, up 12.91 cents / lbs, increased 12.66%, representing imported cotton China main port to the coastal price of international cotton index (M) Average price 127.61 cents / lbs, 1% tariffs import costs 20374 yuan / ton, up 11.38% from the previous month.
02. Domestic cotton prices weaken after a sharp increase
During the eleventh holiday, the rain and snow weather in Xinjiang cotton, the fund is borrowed, and Zheng cotton futures opened on October 8. After the reserve cotton is eleven long holiday, it immediately puts the city, the country increases the market linkage supervision Strength, strictly check the capital malicious speculation, most of the commodity market represented by the black system sharply, the price of cotton is weak. As of 29 October 2021, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Cotton Futures Main Contract Night Disk Settlement Price is 21,635 yuan / ton, from 22,960 yuan / ton high, down 1325 yuan / ton, fell 5.78%, representative National Noblin Cotton Provincial (area) white cotton 3 seed cotton paste cotton cotton average price of China cotton acquisition price S index 20614 yuan / ton, down 1319 yuan / ton, decreased by 6.01%.
Cotton inner and outer cotton, cotton yarn price is rapidly expanded
After the National Day holiday, domestic and foreign cotton disadvantages have expanded rapidly, reaching 2,000 yuan / ton, more than 857 yuan / ton, 205%, from 205% over and outside the past five years, making textile enterprises in the short term face huge cost pressure. At the same time, after the National Day, the domestic yarn is higher than the outer yarn of 1400 yuan / ton, and the domestic yarn price in the past five years is 89 yuan / ton, and the imported yarn is highlighted, and the impact is formed in China.
03. Global cotton supply status
Domestic cotton supply dynamics
Chen cotton stock continued to decline. In September, textile enterprises actively implement energy and dual-control policies, and the boot rate is generally lowered, and cotton demand has weakened, and Chen cotton stock has narrowed. According to the China Cotton Association, the total amount of cotton turning inventory in September is about 1066,900 tons, down 163,200 tons from the previous month, which is reduced from last month, which is 2.821 million tons last year.
Central reserve cotton continues to be launched, and promote smooth operation of the cotton market. According to the requirements of the relevant state departments, since October 8th, the first batch of central reserves began to put it, and each statutory work on 15,000 tons were put on on October 30, and Optimization further optimizes the sales reserve price policy. As the reserves continue to be launched, the materials procurement of textile enterprises have a large room, and the domestic cotton prices are difficult to break through the space.
Foreign cotton master country dynamics
US new cotton maturity is behind, affecting the progress of the harvest. According to the US Department of Agriculture, as of October 24, the US cotton spitting progress was 91%, and the harvest progress was 35%, which was reduced by 4 percentage points in the same period of last year, and the average of 6 percentage points was reduced more than one percentage points over the past five years. 6 percentage points.
The acquisition of seed cotton acquisition in India has been fully launched. The Indian Cotton Association is expected that this year's cotton production may remain in last year, about 6.12 million tons. Indian Cotton Company (CCI) said that the recent market price is much higher than that of ultra-low acquisition prices (MSP), meaning that CCI does not need any market intervention this year.
Pakistan new cotton is close to 900,000 tons. As of 15 October, Pakistan seed cotton listing is about 890,000 tons, an increase of 94% over the same period last year, and the Food Safety and Research Department of Pakistani, said that Pakistan cotton production is expected to reach 1.58 million tons.
Brazilian new cotton sowing is expected to increase. Brazil 2020/21 annual cotton harvest has ended, due to rising cotton prices, Brazilian new cotton sowing area is expected to increase. According to the Brazilian national product supply company, 2021/22 annual Brazilian cotton area is expected to increase by 10.2%, and the output is expected to increase by 13.7%, reaching 2.68 million tons.
04 textile fabric or yelled
After September, the Nii spinning crazy jumping, some of the reasons due to the policy of minimalizing the power outage, leading to the capacity of the gray fabric, and the market has greatly increased the demand for autumn and winter, leading to nervousness of Nii. On the other hand, since the nylon is relatively small, in October, in October, the traditional peak season, Ni-Si's demand has risen violent, and the production power is insufficient, most enterprises preferred consumption plants and cloth business inventory, however The promotion of the production time, the spread of textile inventory is speed, so that the demand in the market is greater than the supply.
However, considering the impact of the limit will continue, the downstream textile weaving enterprises will increase the difficulty, and the enterprise starts in the low position. However, the number of orders has increased, so that the company's demand for nylon is increasing, most companies hold "buy" mentality Purchased nylon raw materials.
In addition to these two aspects, the factors of the goods are not negligible. In short, under various boosts, the Nishi spun market rose, which drives the downstream of the purchase activity of Nii spun fabric, and even one day, the phenomenon of queuing cash buy cloth. But the market is always in hesitation, especially the manufacturers represented by Nishi spun, should also consider the actual situation, only to know the price increase, will definitely be affected by such boycots! At present, the downstream wait and see the atmosphere, the support of the raw materials continues to weaken, the high level is shocking, the idea of the release will fall. Recently, it is reported that in just half a month, Nishi spun has fallen from the high to 1 yuan!
When the market production capacity is tightened, the speculation is more than ten times the demand for natural expansion, but after it is too crazy, is it a fluff? Waiting for the nylon silk spun fabric, maybe it is a short-term post-autumn!
Disclaimer: This article is sorted from the network, copyright belongs to the original author; if there is any infringement, please inform us that after verification.